If government forecasters are correct, hurricane activity during the 2022 season will be above average.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance that activity will be below normal.
An above-average season would make this the seventh consecutive one.
Note that this is not a landfall forecast. Some named storms never find land before they fall apart.
NOAA is also forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, which include tropical storms with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
Of these, forecasters expect between six and 10 to become hurricanes, with sustained winds of at least 74 mph, including between three and six major hurricanes, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Major hurricanes are considered to be category 3, 4 or 5.
NOAA encourages people to go to ready.gov (listo.gov for Spanish speakers) to find helpful information regarding preparedness.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane-resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
The predictions are based on a number of factors. The current La Niña conditions are affecting sea surface temperatures, and tropical Atlantic trade winds are weaker than normal. In addition, an enhanced West African monsoon could bring stronger African easterly waves, seeding the hurricanes.
The Climate Prediction Center will update the seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the peak of the season, which tends to fall in September and October.
For additional information, go to hurricanes.gov, follow @NHC and @NHC_Atlantic on Twitter.
