Northeast Florida housing market shifts to ‘new normal’


A “new normal” has taken over Northeast Florida’s housing market.

In contrast to the rapidly rising prices experienced over the past 18 months, little change occurred in the median price of single-family homes throughout the region in the past 60 days. And as the price midpoint for single-family homes in Northeast Florida hovered at $400,000 in July, closed sales, pending sales, and new listings began a sharp decline. From June to July, closed sales dropped 23.6% to 1,886, pending sales dropped 12.6% to 1,795 and new listings dropped 11.7% to 2,870. 

Meanwhile, days on the market rose 33.3% to 24, and the number of homes in the region’s inventory rose 11.6% to 4,962 homes, a 2.6-month supply. This signals a loosening up of the market that should be a welcome relief to buyers.

“It appears that the real estate market in Northeast Florida is settling into a new normal,” said NEFAR President Mark Rosener.

This “new normal” is also evident when you add townhomes and condos to the mix within the region, he said.

“In looking at the combined data for single-family houses, condos and townhomes for the six-county market area that is served by NEFAR, we see the median price inching up to $376,600, a mere 0.5% increase in July compared to June 2022,” Rosener said. “The stabilization of the median price and mortgage interest rates has resulted in the home affordability index remaining unchanged at 73, month over month, which is still a concern.”

The Housing Affordability Index measures housing affordability for the region by measuring whether a typical family earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a typical home, based on current interest rates, median income and median home prices.  A higher number means greater affordability.

The silver lining within the “new normal” is seen in housing inventory and a less frenzied market, Rosener said.

“The good news is that our housing inventory (single-family homes, townhouses, condos), is at 5,953 active listings, which is up 6.2% over June 2022 levels and 24.5% more than what was on the active market in July 2021,” he said. “While still dramatically lower than the 7,500 active listings in March of 2020, the increased selection of available homes is a relief to those looking to buy a new home. For sellers, it means a less hectic and longer marketing period with the median days on the market at 25 days. This is, of course, still a brisk marketing time frame by historical standards, but much less disruptive to a seller’s lifestyle while their home is on the market. With 3,446 new listings hitting the market in July and closed and pending sales taking a typical summer dip in activity, the months of supply of inventory has now nearly doubled to 2.6 months.”

In St. Johns County, July prices rose slightly 1.8% to a median price of $565,000 for single-family homes.  The median days on the market were 27, a 42.1% increase from the month before. Month-to-month, closed sales dropped 22.7% to 489, pending sales dropped 15.4% to 395, and new listings dropped 23% to 625. Active inventory rose to 1,257 homes, a 9.3% increase of 5.l3% from June, and a 2.6-month supply. The affordability index dropped to 48, demonstrating that St. Johns County continues to remain the least affordable area to live in the region.

In Duval County, the July median price of single-family housing was $350,000, the same as in June. The median days on the market in July was 22, a 22.2% increase over June. Month-to-month, closed sales dropped 24% to 931, pending sales dropped 7.2% to 954, and new listings dropped 8.4% to 1,545. Active inventory for the county was 2,471 homes, an increase of 12.7% from last month and a 2.7-month supply. In July, the home affordability index registered at 78, the same as in June.