New UNF poll shows Curry outpaces Brosche in Jacksonville mayoral race

Majority say crime is most important issue facing Jacksonville

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The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Jacksonville has a new poll of likely voters that reveals Republican incumbent Lenny Curry is in the lead for the upcoming mayoral election in Jacksonville, with Anna Lopez Brosche a distant second. The survey also shows that a majority of respondents believe crime is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today.

  The poll, comprised of likely Jacksonville voters, shows that 52 percent of respondents plan to vote for Curry. Regarding the other mayoral Republican candidates, 15 percent plan to vote for Brosche and 3 percent for Jimmy Hill. Six percent of likely voters plan to vote for Omega Allen, the only candidate without a party affiliation, 3 percent indicated that they would vote for another candidate and 22 percent don’t know who their choice will be for mayor. 

Among Democrats, 25 percent indicate they plan to vote for Curry, 25 percent for Brosche, 12 percent for Allen and 2 percent for Hill. Thirty-two percent of Democratic likely voters don’t know for whom they’ll cast their vote. Of Republican likely voters, 78 percent say they will vote for Curry, while only 4 percent indicate they’ll vote for Brosche, 4 percent for Hill and 1 percent for Allen. Thirteen percent don’t know. 

Additionally, the poll shows that 62 percent of likely voters in Jacksonville believe crime is the most important issue facing Jacksonville, followed by education at 13 percent. Of those who believe crime is the most important issue, 58 percent plan to vote for Curry, while 13 percent plan to vote for Brosche. Of likely voters who said education is the most important issue, 51 percent plan to vote for Curry and 14 percent plan to vote for Brosche. 

“The election is upon us, absentee ballots have been mailed out and early voting begins in less than two weeks,” said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. “It’s very late in the game to dramatically change the narrative of these races.”

When asked who they would vote for in the 2019 election for Jacksonville Sheriff, 56 percent said they would vote for Mike Williams, the incumbent Republican, while 33 percent of likely voters claimed they would vote for Tony Cummings, the Democrat. For the Property Appraiser election, 57 percent indicated they would vote for Jerry Holland, the incumbent Republican, and 28 percent for Kurt Kraft, the Democrat. In the election for Tax Collector, incumbent Republican Jim Overton has 47 percent, followed by Democrat John R. Crescimbeni at 35 percent. 

In the Jacksonville City Council At Large elections, there was a great deal of variation. For At Large Group 1, Lisa King, the Democrat, is ahead with 32 percent, followed by the Republican candidates: Jack Daniels, Terrance Freeman and Gary Barrett, with 10 percent, 5 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. A large number of likely voters — 45 percent — aren’t sure where they’ll cast their vote. In At Large Group 2, 36 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Republican Ron Salem and 35 percent for Democrat Darren Mason, with 29 percent undecided.

In the election for At Large Group 3, incumbent Democrat Tommy Hazouri is ahead with 38 percent, followed by Republican Greg Rachal at 26 percent. The other Democrat, James C. Jacobs, has 12 percent, and 25 percent don’t know. At Large Group 4’s candidates are all Republicans, with Matt Carlucci at 43 percent, Don Redman at 14 percent and Harold McCart at 3 percent of likely voters. Forty percent are undecided. In At Large Group 5, 31 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Samuel Newby, the incumbent Republican, followed by Chad Evan McIntyre, the Democrat, with 29 percent. The candidate with no party affiliation, Niki Brunson, is at 6 percent and 34 percent don’t know. 

“All of the races, and especially the At Large Council seats, have large proportions of ‘don’t know’ responses,” Binder noted. “Also, it’s important to remember for races with multiple candidates, if nobody gets to 50 percent, there will be a run-off for the top two candidates in May.” 

For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, sex, education, race and age. go to www.unf.edu/coas/porl/2019JaxSpeaks.aspx.

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