The stock market: When emotions outpace facts

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Special to the Recorder

If you follow the stock market, you know that the market has experienced quite a post-election surge beginning in November and continuing thus far in 2017. Market analysts attribute this to a variety of factors including:
 

Optimism that the Trump administration will repeal and replace Obamacare, implement both corporate and individual tax reform, reduce regulations, convince/coerce businesses to relocate manufacturing back to the USA, stimulate the economy by expanding military and infrastructure spending, and cut government waste

  • Expectations that, with lower corporate tax rates and increased business activity, corporate profits will rise
  • Expectations that, with lower individual tax rates and a continued healthy jobs outlook, consumer spending will rise
  • Expectations that, with reductions in government spending on programs and personnel and increased spending on military hardware and infrastructure repair/replacement, more dollars will be infused into our economy


Given these factors, the market has surged upward, although as I write this, the surge seems to be losing a little steam. Whether the market continues to see more upward momentum depends on whether Trump can deliver on all these expectations and whether corporate profits reflect the optimism that has been present since the election. The president was elected because he promised big changes across the board in government, business and our society in general. If he can deliver, there is no reason the market won’t continue to rise; if he falters, it is likely the market will retrench, potentially significantly at least in the near term.

 The stock market has always been influenced by emotion as well as facts. When emotion outpaces facts, either in the positive or negative, large swings often result. That’s one reason why the corporate reports for the first quarter of 2017 will be so important – to determine whether the facts support the enthusiasm. Just another reason to utilize a balanced, diversified approach to investing so these periods of uncertainty don’t keep you up at night worrying about your future.

Frederic “Ric” Schilling is a Florida native, born in Jacksonville, Fl. Ric is president of Senior Guardians of America, a local North Florida firm specializing in tax reduction, long term illness planning, asset protection, probate avoidance and life income planning. Ric is a national speaker and advocate on senior issues and has been featured by the Florida Times Union and WJXT, TV-4 in Jacksonville as an authority on estate planning and retirement issues. Senior Guardians has an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau and is a member in excellent standing with the National Ethics Association. Contact Frederic: (904) 371-3302 or (888) 891-3381 Please visit: www.seniorguardian.com. This article is not intended to give tax or legal advice. Securities offered through Center Street Securities, Inc. (CSS), a registered Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA & SIPC. Senior Guardians is independent of CSS.

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