National Weather Service forecasters are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms. Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, three to five of which are predicted to be major hurricanes (at least category 3).
Several factors contribute to this outlook, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.
NOAA is improving its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:
- NOAA’s model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, will be upgraded, which is expected to result in a 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts.
- NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two to three weeks.
Image credit NOAA NWS
Enhanced communication products
- NHC will offer Spanish-language text products to include the tropical weather outlook, public advisories, the tropical cyclone discussion, the tropical cyclone update and key messages.
- NHC will again issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States. The graphic will also highlight areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect.
- NHC will provide a rip current risk map when a tropical system is present. The map uses data provided by local National Weather Service forecast offices. Swells from distant hurricanes cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the coastline.
Innovative tools
- NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Services (NESDIS), in collaboration with NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations and NOAA Research, is deploying a new, experimental radar system called ROARS on NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter research aircraft. The system will scan beneath the plane to collect data on the ocean waves and the wind structure of the hurricane.
- NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal provides user-friendly access to see the forecast for rain and flash flooding up to three days in advance. In 2024, Hurricane Helene brought more than 30 inches of inland rainfall that was devastating and deadly to communities in North Carolina.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the outlook in August prior to the historical peak of the season.
— Article source: noaa.gov
