I have long argued that there is power in solitude; not only from a self-development perspective but also from an investing point of view. Don’t believe me? Keep reading. However, before I get to the convincing part of this narrative allow me to suggest that perhaps the reason for my steadfast conviction regarding the supremacy of quietness is that I am essentially a social hermit that craves isolation. I enjoy the company of a good book and a view, and spending time with my kids vs. a social gathering with friends or colleagues. Yeah, I get it that some peeps think that my “Monk Mode Mentality” is strange, but there is a lot of science that underscores that the secret is in the silence. Nevertheless, the same folks might also suggest that I am boring, but I argue that I am not boring at all; I just like boring things! I am not a Zen monk, nor will I ever become one. However, I find great inspiration in the way they live their lives with simplicity, concentration, and mindfulness of every activity. I envy the calm and peace that they find in their days, as they appear to pursue what is meaningful rather than what society says is important.
Okay, here comes the proving part that going dark could make us a lot of money while appearing to be as smart as the legendary investor, Warren Buffet! The following piece was penned on March 11, 2019 by my favorite two bean counters (economist), Brian Wesbury and John Stein.
It's March 8, 2009. The markets down 56% from its all-time high, unemployment is over 8% and hurtling toward 10%, it's just been reported that real GDP dropped at a 6.2% annual rate in Q4 of 2008, and it feels like the world is coming to an end. You're tired, exhausted from living through this, and you fall into a deep sleep. So deep, in fact, that you don't wake up until today, 10 years later. First thing you do is run to your computer and see the S&P 500 is up 305% since the bottom. You are blown away. No way could this be true! Things were so bad when you fell asleep. Little did you know the S&P 500 bottomed the next day.
So you run over to your friend's house and knock on the door. Your friend answers, wondering where you've been for 10 years! You ask what possibly could have happened to drive the stock market up more than 300%. Your friend pulls out a list. Let's call them the "golden geese." After-tax economy-wide corporate profits are at record highs, up 175% since the bottom, or around 11% annualized growth.
Then your friend tells you about ride sharing services. Your friend tells you how you can press a button on a phone and a few minutes later a car will come by and, before you get in, you know who the driver is, his rating, how much it'll cost, and how long it will take to get to your destination. All cheaper than a taxi. It seems like science fiction! You see unemployment is only 3.8% and think it's a typo, because when you fell asleep it was more than double that. Your friend shows you a video of a self-driving semi-truck that was used to carry 51,744 cans of beer from Fort Collins, CO, to Colorado Springs, CO. About 130 miles on I-25 with no driver! Now other companies are deploying similar trucks.
But what may be most amazing is that that there have been several years over the last 10 that the US has run a trade surplus with OPEC. You wonder how this can be since the US was in an energy crisis when you fell asleep. In fact, oil production had been on a declining trend for about 50 years. Your friend tells you it's all changed. Since you have been asleep, because of new technology, oil production has more than doubled, from about 5 million barrels per day to around 12.1 million barrels per day. In fact, the US is now the world's biggest oil producer. Bigger than Russia and Saudi Arabia! The state of Texas, by itself, just surpassed Iran to become the world's fifth biggest oil producer! You continue through the list and are more and more blown away. It's been only 10 years and the world is completely different, for the better! You barely recognize it, so many things have happened that you wouldn't have even dreamt possible.
I suggest with utmost respect, professionalism, and humbleness that you (and me) shut up, go away, and get quiet on a regular basis. Then, over time, we can witness the magic of stillness in our lives. The Beatles had it right—there will be an answer if you just let it be.
