Although presidents get a lot of the blame, and take a lot of the credit, for the performance of the stock market, there is no evidence that the president has the ability to impact the economy and markets in any meaningful way, especially in the long run. There is abundant data that supports the above notion, but there are still far too many folks that believe that the future performance of the stock market is predicated on who is the president. I argue that there are three paramount facts to know about the subject title:
1.) Stocks have soared when both Republicans and Democrats were in power.
2.) Stocks have tanked when both Republicans and Democrats were in power.
3.) The performance of the stocks is exceedingly more dependent of where we are in the cycle when presidents come into office.
Nevertheless, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the Dow’s performance under every president since the end of WWI, calculating the percent change in the index during each president’s term.
Here are the results:
DJIA performance: -82.1%
Served from: March 4, 1929 – March 4, 1933
Months in office: 48
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: -28.3%
Served from: Jan. 20, 1969 – Aug. 9, 1974
Months in office: 67
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: -26.5%
Served from: Jan. 20, 2001 – Jan. 20, 2009
Months in office: 96
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: -0.7%
Served from: Jan. 20, 1977 – Jan. 20, 1981
Months in office: 48
Party affiliation: Democratic
DJIA performance: +15.8%
Served from: Jan. 20, 1961 – Nov. 22, 1963
Months in office: 34
Party affiliation: Democratic
DJIA performance: +23.4%
Served from: March 3, 1921 – Aug. 2, 1923
Months in office: 29
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: +26.1%
Served from: Nov. 22, 1963 – Jan. 20, 1969
Months in office: 62
Party affiliation: Democratic
DJIA performance: +35.5%
Served from: Jan. 20, 2017 – Present
Months in office: 46
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: +40.6%
Served from: Aug. 9, 1974 – Jan. 20, 1977
Months in office: 29
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: +41.3%
Served from: Jan. 20, 1989 – Jan. 20, 1993
Months in office: 48
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: +75.2%
Served from: April 12, 1945 – Jan. 20, 1953
Months in office: 93
Party affiliation: Democratic
DJIA performance: +123.7%
Served from: Jan. 20, 1953 – Jan. 20, 1961
Months in office: 96
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: +147.3%
Served from: Jan. 20, 1981 – Jan. 20, 1989
Months in office: 96
Party affiliation: Republican
DJIA performance: +148.3%
Served from: Jan. 20, 2009 – Jan. 20, 2017
Months in office: 96
Party affiliation: Democratic
DJIA performance: +198.6%
Served from: March 4, 1933 – April 12, 1945
Months in office: 145
Party affiliation: Democratic
DJIA performance: +228.9%
Served from: Jan. 20, 1993 – Jan. 20, 2001
Months in office: 96
Party affiliation: Democratic
DJIA performance: +230.5%
Served from: Aug. 2, 1923 – March 4, 1929
Months in office: 67
Party affiliation: Republican
Harry Pappas Jr. CFP®
Managing Director-Investments
Master of Science Degree Personal Financial Planning
Certified Estate & Trust Specialist ™
Certified Divorce Financial Analyst™
Pappas Wealth Management Group of Wells Fargo Advisors
818 North Highway A1A, Ste. 200
Ponte Vedra, Florida 32082
904-273-7955
harry.pappas@wellsfargoadvisors.com
Investment and Insurance Products are:
Not Insured by the FDIC or Any Federal Government Agency Not a Deposit or Other Obligation of, or Guaranteed by, the Bank or Any Bank Affiliate Subject to Investment Risks, Including Possible Loss of the Principal Amount Invested
The use of the CDFA™ designation does not permit Wells Fargo Advisors or its Financial Advisors to provide legal advice, nor is it meant to imply that the firm or its associates are acting as experts in this field.
Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC, Member SIPC, a Registered Broker-Dealer and a non-bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.
This and/or the accompanying statistical information was prepared by or obtained from sources that Wells Fargo Advisors believes to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The report herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Any market prices are only indications of market values and are subject to change. The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request CAR 0121-01128
